The Turkic Growth Belt: How Uzbekistan Is Creating a New Trade Axis

Uzbekistan is emerging as a new economic hub in Central Asia — and doing so at remarkable speed. In 2023, the country’s GDP surpassed the $100 billion mark for the first time, growing by 6 %. By 2026, economic expansion is projected to reach 6–6.8 %. This pace exceeds the average growth rate across Europe and Central Asia (ECA) by approximately 2.5 times, enabling the country to rapidly close income gaps.

By 2030, Uzbekistan aims to sustain annual growth of 6–7 % and double the size of its economy to $200 billion. These expectations are reinforced by IMF projections, which forecast Uzbekistan’s GDP to grow by 32.3 % between 2026 and 2030. By this measure, the country ranks second globally — behind India (36.5 %) but ahead of the UAE (24.4 %).

This economic acceleration is driven by investment inflows, expanding trade turnover, and sweeping liberal reforms. Each of these factors warrants closer examination.

1. Liberalization Reforms as a Foundation for Growth. Following the abolition of mandatory foreign currency revenue repatriation and the introduction of full convertibility of the Uzbek som, Uzbekistan implemented several major reforms. These included reductions in VAT and other tax rates, the introduction of investor protection mechanisms, and the simplification of state-owned asset privatization. Equally significant was trade liberalization, which eliminated import duties and streamlined export procedures. These measures contributed to a decline in inflation to 7.3 % in 2025, while stimulating foreign capital inflows.

2. Foreign Investment Momentum. China remains the largest source of foreign investment, accounting for approximately 40 % of inflows, followed by Russia and Turkey, which together contribute around 16 %. In 2024, foreign investment in projects within Uzbekistan increased 1.6-fold, reaching $35 billion. Capital investment continued to grow in 2025, rising to $43.1 billion — an increase of 24 %.

3. Expanding External Trade. According to preliminary estimates from the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover reached $81.2 billion in 2025, reflecting growth of 20.7 %. Exports increased by 24 %, reaching $33.8 billion, driven primarily by food products and energy resources. Gold exports accounted for nearly 30 % of total export revenues.

Imports rose by 18.5 % to $47.4 billion, fueled by demand for industrial goods, chemical products, and manufacturing equipment. Structurally, the share of industrial and processed goods in trade is steadily rising.

The Turkic Vector and Regional Cooperation with Russia

Uzbekistan is becoming a pivotal hub within the Turkic world. The country accounts for 25.2 % ($15.8 billion) of Turkey’s regional trade turnover.

By 2030, Uzbekistan’s integration into the Middle Corridor — via Azerbaijan — is expected to triple cargo traffic and cut transportation time between China and Europe by half, reducing delivery times to approximately 15 days. This transformation is supported by the construction of 8,000 kilometers of transport infrastructure. In the energy sector, 2026 is expected to become a milestone year with the launch of the «Green Corridor» project (Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan), enabling electricity exports to Europe and positioning Uzbekistan as a key energy hub within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).

Cooperation is also intensifying with Turkic-speaking regions of Russia, including Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and the Volga region. Major initiatives include the launch of the Chirchik Industrial Park ($130 million) and the Jizzakh Industrial Park ($100 million), the Pyshminskaya agro-logistics complex, and projects in oil and gas equipment manufacturing. In late 2025, Rosatom began construction of a small modular nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan. Combined investments from LUKOIL and Tatneft projects exceed $12 billion.

Economic and Partnership Challenges

Despite strong momentum, structural challenges remain. The World Bank anticipates potential pressures stemming from rising energy prices and possible economic slowdowns in key partner countries such as Russia and China. Uzbekistan’s government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3 % of GDP by 2026 through reforms of state enterprise subsidies while introducing a cap on new external borrowing of $5 billion. However, reliance on raw material exports and remittances continues to create vulnerabilities, while regulatory inconsistencies may slow cross-border initiatives.

Health as a Strategic Growth Sector

Healthcare has become one of the fastest-growing sectors in Uzbekistan. The country’s population has surpassed 37 million and is projected to reach 41 million by 2030, naturally increasing demand for medical services as improved diagnostics reveal previously undetected conditions.

In 2025, more than 42,000 new oncology cases were diagnosed — an increase of 17 % compared to 2022 — bringing the incidence rate to approximately 118.5 cases per 100,000 people. Stomach and breast cancer remain leading concerns, accounting for 10.8 % and 11.9 % of all cancer diagnoses, respectively. To address these challenges, Uzbekistan, in partnership with the World Health Organization, is implementing the National Cancer Control Strategy for 2025–2035, which focuses on expanding screening programs and reducing premature mortality from cancer.

Female infertility remains a significant issue, particularly in the Fergana Valley, where rates reached 16.8 % among women of reproductive age in 2025 — substantially exceeding the global average of 8-12 %. The country also recorded a decline in birth rates to 17.7 per 1,000 population in 2025, reflecting a 2.4 % year-on-year decrease.

Investment Opportunities in Healthcare. The sector is simultaneously opening new opportunities for investors. The pharmaceutical market reached $2.14 billion by September 2025, representing annual growth of 36.4 %. The sector is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.35 % through 2030, reaching approximately $6.6 billion. Development banks are actively financing hospital construction and modernization projects under preferential lending conditions, reducing capital investment risks for private investors. Out-of-pocket payments account for 60.3 % of total healthcare expenditures, creating strong potential for private insurance development. Growing consumer purchasing power, combined with a shortage of modern clinics, presents substantial investment potential.

Uzbekistan Toward 2035: Future Outlook

In my view, Uzbekistan’s economic development through 2035 will be driven by several core pillars.

1. Energy. Both conventional and renewable energy will remain key drivers of domestic growth and export revenue.

2. Digital Technologies and Financial Services. Fintech, digital banking, cryptocurrency initiatives, and international digital platforms are likely to become primary sources of competitiveness.

3. Transport and Logistics. Expansion of trade corridors — particularly through the Middle Corridor — will further strengthen Uzbekistan’s role as a regional logistics hub.

Investors should pay close attention to Uzbekistan’s accelerated economic growth — projected at 6–6.5 %, compared to 2.4–2.7 % across the broader region — combined with relatively manageable risks. Priority investment sectors include energy, infrastructure, logistics, and digital finance. For Turkic states and Russia’s Turkic-speaking regions, Uzbekistan presents a unique opportunity to establish a new Eurasian growth center built upon expanding trade integration and large-scale infrastructure development.